Fair Price combinations
Every fixture here was priced before its own kickoff, and published from the artefact that recorded it. Six cells per match — result against over/under 2.5 — with our fair price beside the price a builder would quote. Results fill in as matches settle, and nothing is removed once posted. See how the fair price is built.
Not tips. These exist to create a dated record that can be judged later, not as advice to bet. The sample is far too small to support any conclusion, and will be for a good while yet.
There is deliberately no win rate, hit rate or running score on this page. A tally at this sample size would read as a performance claim without the evidence to carry it. The counts below are counts, nothing more.
15 fixtures kicked off without a result attached, of which 15 can never settle — the match was priced from the odds feed, but nothing in our fixture list points at it, so no score can ever be matched to it. Those cards say so on their face rather than sitting open for ever.
September 2026 83 priced
Sunday 6 September
23 fixtures
PPL · Tier B
Settled
Gil Vicente v Académico de Viseu
0-1 · Away win & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 4.78 vs 6.16 20.9% · 16.2% -22.4% | 4.58 vs 3.77 21.8% · 26.5% +21.5% |
| Draw | 19.31 vs 8.49 5.2% · 11.8% +127.5% | 3.87 vs 5.20 25.9% · 19.2% -25.5% |
| Away win | 8.43 vs 10.05 11.9% · 10.0% -16.1% | 6.97 vs 6.15 14.3% · 16.3% +13.3% landed |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
PD · Tier B
Settled
Espanyol v Sevilla
1-1 · Draw & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 4.27 vs 5.39 23.4% · 18.6% -20.8% | 5.26 vs 4.19 19.0% · 23.9% +25.6% |
| Draw | 17.83 vs 7.68 5.6% · 13.0% +132.0% | 4.14 vs 5.97 24.2% · 16.8% -30.6% landed |
| Away win | 6.80 vs 8.23 14.7% · 12.2% -17.3% | 7.63 vs 6.39 13.1% · 15.6% +19.4% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
FL1 · Tier B
Settled
Marseille v Paris FC
2-3 · Away win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.06 vs 3.60 32.7% · 27.8% -14.9% | 5.85 vs 4.55 17.1% · 22.0% +28.5% |
| Draw | 12.12 vs 6.97 8.3% · 14.3% +73.8% | 5.74 vs 8.82 17.4% · 11.3% -34.9% |
| Away win | 6.70 vs 7.29 14.9% · 13.7% -8.1% landed | 10.38 vs 9.22 9.6% · 10.8% +12.6% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
SA · Tier B
Settled
Juventus v AC Milan
1-1 · Draw & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.92 vs 4.86 25.5% · 20.6% -19.2% | 5.13 vs 4.10 19.5% · 24.4% +25.1% |
| Draw | 14.77 vs 7.46 6.8% · 13.4% +98.1% | 4.44 vs 6.29 22.5% · 15.9% -29.5% landed |
| Away win | 7.40 vs 8.50 13.5% · 11.8% -12.9% | 8.20 vs 7.17 12.2% · 13.9% +14.3% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
PPL · Tier A
Settled
Vitória SC v Casa Pia
0-0 · Draw & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.75 vs 3.37 36.3% · 29.7% -18.3% | 3.71 vs 2.98 27.0% · 33.6% +24.6% |
| Draw | 23.27 vs 9.35 4.3% · 10.7% +148.9% | 5.41 vs 8.27 18.5% · 12.1% -34.6% landed |
| Away win | 15.86 vs 15.29 6.3% · 6.5% +3.7% | 13.10 vs 13.52 7.6% · 7.4% -3.1% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
PD · Tier A
Settled
Málaga v Levante
0-0 · Draw & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 4.24 vs 5.21 23.6% · 19.2% -18.6% | 6.20 vs 4.88 16.1% · 20.5% +27.2% |
| Draw | 15.02 vs 7.09 6.7% · 14.1% +111.8% | 4.44 vs 6.63 22.5% · 15.1% -33.1% landed |
| Away win | 5.52 vs 6.64 18.1% · 15.0% -16.9% | 7.67 vs 6.21 13.0% · 16.1% +23.4% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
PD · Tier B
Settled
Alavés v CA Osasuna
5-2 · Home win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 4.94 vs 6.45 20.2% · 15.5% -23.3% landed | 4.73 vs 3.87 21.1% · 25.9% +22.3% |
| Draw | 22.20 vs 8.54 4.5% · 11.7% +160.0% | 3.74 vs 5.12 26.7% · 19.5% -27.0% |
| Away win | 7.83 vs 9.73 12.8% · 10.3% -19.5% | 6.83 vs 5.84 14.6% · 17.1% +17.0% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
SA · Tier A
No result
Bologna v Sassuolo
Kickoff 2026-09-06 16:00
Tap for cells
This match kicked off and no result can ever be attached to it. It was priced from the odds feed, which keys on the bookmaker's event id, and nothing in our fixture list points at that id — so there is no score to settle it against, now or later. The price stands as published; the outcome is simply missing.
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.44 vs 4.15 29.0% · 24.1% -17.0% | 5.64 vs 4.41 17.7% · 22.7% +27.8% |
| Draw | 12.54 vs 6.91 8.0% · 14.5% +81.4% | 4.98 vs 7.35 20.1% · 13.6% -32.3% |
| Away win | 6.89 vs 7.71 14.5% · 13.0% -10.7% | 9.41 vs 8.21 10.6% · 12.2% +14.7% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
BL1 · Tier B
Settled
Eintracht Frankfurt v Augsburg
1-4 · Away win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.68 vs 3.03 37.3% · 33.0% -11.6% | 7.26 vs 5.52 13.8% · 18.1% +31.5% |
| Draw | 10.12 vs 6.55 9.9% · 15.3% +54.6% | 7.25 vs 11.91 13.8% · 8.4% -39.1% |
| Away win | 5.77 vs 6.14 17.3% · 16.3% -6.1% landed | 12.66 vs 11.18 7.9% · 8.9% +13.3% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
PL · Tier A
Settled
Arsenal v Chelsea
2-1 · Home win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.85 vs 3.42 35.1% · 29.2% -16.9% landed | 4.80 vs 3.74 20.8% · 26.8% +28.5% |
| Draw | 14.87 vs 7.60 6.7% · 13.1% +95.6% | 5.41 vs 8.30 18.5% · 12.0% -34.8% |
| Away win | 9.69 vs 10.17 10.3% · 9.8% -4.8% | 11.75 vs 11.10 8.5% · 9.0% +5.8% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
FL1 · Tier B
No result
Angers v Rennes
Kickoff 2026-09-06 15:15
Tap for cells
This match kicked off and no result can ever be attached to it. It was priced from the odds feed, which keys on the bookmaker's event id, and nothing in our fixture list points at that id — so there is no score to settle it against, now or later. The price stands as published; the outcome is simply missing.
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 6.83 vs 7.34 14.6% · 13.6% -7.0% | 10.45 vs 9.45 9.6% · 10.6% +10.7% |
| Draw | 12.77 vs 7.28 7.8% · 13.7% +75.3% | 6.04 vs 9.38 16.6% · 10.7% -35.6% |
| Away win | 2.96 vs 3.46 33.8% · 28.9% -14.4% | 5.69 vs 4.45 17.6% · 22.5% +27.8% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
DED · Tier B
Settled
ADO Den Haag v Fortuna Sittard
2-3 · Away win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.78 vs 3.11 36.0% · 32.1% -10.7% | 7.81 vs 6.01 12.8% · 16.6% +30.0% |
| Draw | 9.92 vs 6.57 10.1% · 15.2% +50.9% | 7.68 vs 12.68 13.0% · 7.9% -39.4% |
| Away win | 5.05 vs 5.40 19.8% · 18.5% -6.5% landed | 12.01 vs 10.40 8.3% · 9.6% +15.4% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
PPL · Tier B
Settled
Santa Clara v Rio Ave FC
4-0 · Home win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.79 vs 4.85 26.4% · 20.6% -21.7% landed | 4.42 vs 3.53 22.6% · 28.4% +25.3% |
| Draw | 17.51 vs 7.95 5.7% · 12.6% +120.3% | 4.14 vs 5.78 24.2% · 17.3% -28.4% |
| Away win | 9.97 vs 11.24 10.0% · 8.9% -11.4% | 9.02 vs 8.18 11.1% · 12.2% +10.3% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
PD · Tier B
Settled
Valencia v Barcelona
0-5 · Away win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 16.09 vs 15.62 6.2% · 6.4% +3.0% | 33.60 vs 35.86 3.0% · 2.8% -6.3% |
| Draw | 19.23 vs 9.20 5.2% · 10.9% +109.0% | 9.61 vs 21.12 10.4% · 4.7% -54.5% |
| Away win | 1.72 vs 1.91 58.2% · 52.4% -10.1% landed | 5.90 vs 4.38 17.0% · 22.8% +34.5% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
BL1 · Tier A
Settled
Hamburger SV v FSV Mainz 05
0-5 · Away win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 5.14 vs 5.95 19.4% · 16.8% -13.6% | 7.56 vs 6.30 13.2% · 15.9% +20.0% |
| Draw | 12.22 vs 6.90 8.2% · 14.5% +77.1% | 5.00 vs 7.30 20.0% · 13.7% -31.5% |
| Away win | 4.20 vs 4.97 23.8% · 20.1% -15.4% landed | 6.51 vs 5.26 15.4% · 19.0% +23.9% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
FL1 · Tier B
No result
Troyes v Strasbourg
Kickoff 2026-09-06 13:00
Tap for cells
This match kicked off and no result can ever be attached to it. It was priced from the odds feed, which keys on the bookmaker's event id, and nothing in our fixture list points at that id — so there is no score to settle it against, now or later. The price stands as published; the outcome is simply missing.
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 5.08 vs 5.81 19.7% · 17.2% -12.6% | 7.96 vs 6.64 12.6% · 15.1% +19.8% |
| Draw | 11.74 vs 6.80 8.5% · 14.7% +72.7% | 5.25 vs 7.77 19.1% · 12.9% -32.5% |
| Away win | 3.98 vs 4.67 25.1% · 21.4% -14.7% | 6.65 vs 5.34 15.0% · 18.7% +24.6% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
PL · Tier B
Settled
Everton v Manchester United
2-2 · Draw & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 5.81 vs 6.43 17.2% · 15.5% -9.7% | 9.61 vs 8.28 10.4% · 12.1% +16.1% |
| Draw | 11.40 vs 6.74 8.8% · 14.8% +69.0% landed | 5.69 vs 8.68 17.6% · 11.5% -34.4% |
| Away win | 3.30 vs 3.86 30.3% · 25.9% -14.5% | 6.35 vs 4.97 15.7% · 20.1% +27.8% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
SA · Tier B
Settled
Parma v Monza
1-1 · Draw & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 5.59 vs 7.02 17.9% · 14.2% -20.4% | 5.94 vs 4.89 16.8% · 20.5% +21.6% |
| Draw | 15.22 vs 7.43 6.6% · 13.5% +104.9% | 3.81 vs 5.17 26.2% · 19.4% -26.3% landed |
| Away win | 6.03 vs 7.50 16.6% · 13.3% -19.6% | 6.29 vs 5.22 15.9% · 19.2% +20.4% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
SA · Tier B
Settled
Frosinone v Venezia
3-2 · Home win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 4.06 vs 4.59 24.6% · 21.8% -11.6% landed | 8.81 vs 7.04 11.3% · 14.2% +25.1% |
| Draw | 9.48 vs 6.11 10.5% · 16.4% +55.3% | 6.06 vs 9.37 16.5% · 10.7% -35.4% |
| Away win | 3.94 vs 4.47 25.4% · 22.4% -11.8% | 8.63 vs 6.86 11.6% · 14.6% +25.8% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
DED · Tier B
Settled
Heerenveen v AZ Alkmaar
2-3 · Away win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 5.66 vs 5.96 17.7% · 16.8% -5.1% | 13.78 vs 12.26 7.3% · 8.2% +12.3% |
| Draw | 9.87 vs 6.57 10.1% · 15.2% +50.2% | 8.02 vs 13.53 12.5% · 7.4% -40.7% |
| Away win | 2.53 vs 2.83 39.5% · 35.3% -10.6% landed | 7.72 vs 5.83 13.0% · 17.1% +32.3% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
DED · Tier B
No result
SC Telstar v SC Cambuur
Kickoff 2026-09-06 12:30
Tap for cells
This match kicked off and no result can ever be attached to it. It was priced from the odds feed, which keys on the bookmaker's event id, and nothing in our fixture list points at that id — so there is no score to settle it against, now or later. The price stands as published; the outcome is simply missing.
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.30 vs 2.60 43.4% · 38.5% -11.3% | 6.66 vs 5.01 15.0% · 19.9% +32.8% |
| Draw | 11.24 vs 7.06 8.9% · 14.2% +59.2% | 7.93 vs 13.61 12.6% · 7.3% -41.8% |
| Away win | 7.37 vs 7.56 13.6% · 13.2% -2.6% | 15.36 vs 14.59 6.5% · 6.9% +5.3% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
ELC · Tier A
Settled
Birmingham City v Wolverhampton Wanderers
2-2 · Draw & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 5.92 vs 6.76 16.9% · 14.8% -12.4% | 7.54 vs 6.52 13.3% · 15.3% +15.7% |
| Draw | 12.85 vs 7.24 7.8% · 13.8% +77.5% landed | 4.91 vs 6.98 20.4% · 14.3% -29.6% |
| Away win | 4.09 vs 4.88 24.4% · 20.5% -16.1% | 5.78 vs 4.71 17.3% · 21.2% +22.8% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
DED · Tier B
Settled
Groningen v FC Twente Enschede
2-2 · Draw & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 4.97 vs 5.39 20.1% · 18.6% -7.6% | 11.43 vs 9.73 8.7% · 10.3% +17.6% |
| Draw | 9.65 vs 6.35 10.4% · 15.7% +52.0% landed | 7.09 vs 11.47 14.1% · 8.7% -38.2% |
| Away win | 2.95 vs 3.33 33.9% · 30.0% -11.4% | 7.82 vs 6.01 12.8% · 16.6% +30.1% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260906_061002
Saturday 5 September
38 fixtures
PPL · Tier B
Settled
Sporting Lisbon v Nacional
2-0 · Home win & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 1.62 vs 1.77 61.8% · 56.4% -8.7% | 5.00 vs 3.94 20.0% · 25.4% +26.9% landed |
| Draw | 27.92 vs 12.34 3.6% · 8.1% +126.3% | 12.24 vs 27.42 8.2% · 3.6% -55.4% |
| Away win | 27.67 vs 22.39 3.6% · 4.5% +23.6% | 34.92 vs 49.75 2.9% · 2.0% -29.8% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
DED · Tier B
No result
Willem II v Excelsior
Kickoff 2026-09-05 19:00
Tap for cells
This match kicked off and no result can ever be attached to it. It was priced from the odds feed, which keys on the bookmaker's event id, and nothing in our fixture list points at that id — so there is no score to settle it against, now or later. The price stands as published; the outcome is simply missing.
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 4.97 vs 5.55 20.1% · 18.0% -10.5% | 8.53 vs 7.23 11.7% · 13.8% +17.9% |
| Draw | 11.67 vs 6.96 8.6% · 14.4% +67.6% | 5.95 vs 9.07 16.8% · 11.0% -34.4% |
| Away win | 3.59 vs 4.13 27.9% · 24.2% -13.2% | 6.72 vs 5.39 14.9% · 18.6% +24.8% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
ELC · Tier A
Settled
Swansea City v Wrexham AFC
0-0 · Draw & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 4.25 vs 5.08 23.5% · 19.7% -16.2% | 5.62 vs 4.63 17.8% · 21.6% +21.4% |
| Draw | 13.77 vs 7.56 7.3% · 13.2% +82.1% | 4.88 vs 6.89 20.5% · 14.5% -29.1% landed |
| Away win | 5.92 vs 6.78 16.9% · 14.8% -12.7% | 7.12 vs 6.18 14.0% · 16.2% +15.3% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
PD · Tier B
Settled
Villarreal v Deportivo La Coruña
2-3 · Away win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.37 vs 2.79 42.1% · 35.8% -14.9% | 4.64 vs 3.59 21.6% · 27.8% +29.2% |
| Draw | 19.64 vs 8.53 5.1% · 11.7% +130.1% | 6.36 vs 10.99 15.7% · 9.1% -42.1% |
| Away win | 11.04 vs 11.47 9.1% · 8.7% -3.7% landed | 15.55 vs 14.77 6.4% · 6.8% +5.3% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
FL1 · Tier A
No result
Le Havre v Brest
Kickoff 2026-09-05 18:45
Tap for cells
This match kicked off and no result can ever be attached to it. It was priced from the odds feed, which keys on the bookmaker's event id, and nothing in our fixture list points at that id — so there is no score to settle it against, now or later. The price stands as published; the outcome is simply missing.
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 4.90 vs 5.85 20.4% · 17.1% -16.4% | 6.41 vs 5.28 15.6% · 18.9% +21.4% |
| Draw | 13.49 vs 7.20 7.4% · 13.9% +87.2% | 4.58 vs 6.50 21.9% · 15.4% -29.6% |
| Away win | 5.10 vs 6.07 19.6% · 16.5% -16.0% | 6.61 vs 5.48 15.1% · 18.3% +20.7% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
FL1 · Tier A
Settled
Nice v Le Mans FC
1-1 · Draw & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.17 vs 3.83 31.6% · 26.1% -17.2% | 4.93 vs 3.89 20.3% · 25.7% +26.8% |
| Draw | 14.75 vs 7.61 6.8% · 13.1% +93.8% | 5.18 vs 7.73 19.3% · 12.9% -33.0% landed |
| Away win | 8.30 vs 8.99 12.0% · 11.1% -7.7% | 9.97 vs 9.13 10.0% · 11.0% +9.2% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
SA · Tier B
Settled
AS Roma v Atalanta BC
2-1 · Home win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.84 vs 3.38 35.3% · 29.6% -16.0% landed | 4.94 vs 3.86 20.3% · 25.9% +27.9% |
| Draw | 14.67 vs 7.69 6.8% · 13.0% +90.9% | 5.69 vs 8.78 17.6% · 11.4% -35.2% |
| Away win | 8.88 vs 9.34 11.3% · 10.7% -4.9% | 11.33 vs 10.67 8.8% · 9.4% +6.2% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
PPL · Tier B
No result
CS Maritimo v Benfica
Kickoff 2026-09-05 17:00
Tap for cells
This match kicked off and no result can ever be attached to it. It was priced from the odds feed, which keys on the bookmaker's event id, and nothing in our fixture list points at that id — so there is no score to settle it against, now or later. The price stands as published; the outcome is simply missing.
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 26.84 vs 21.80 3.7% · 4.6% +23.1% | 28.55 vs 37.85 3.5% · 2.6% -24.6% |
| Draw | 28.31 vs 11.57 3.5% · 8.6% +144.7% | 9.91 vs 20.08 10.1% · 5.0% -50.7% |
| Away win | 1.78 vs 1.99 56.2% · 50.2% -10.6% | 4.36 vs 3.46 23.0% · 28.9% +26.0% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
PPL · Tier B
Settled
Alverca v Braga
1-2 · Away win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 10.85 vs 11.72 9.2% · 8.5% -7.4% | 9.40 vs 8.83 10.6% · 11.3% +6.4% |
| Draw | 19.59 vs 8.58 5.1% · 11.6% +128.2% | 4.54 vs 6.47 22.0% · 15.5% -29.7% |
| Away win | 3.49 vs 4.39 28.6% · 22.8% -20.5% landed | 4.10 vs 3.31 24.4% · 30.2% +24.0% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
DED · Tier B
No result
FC Utrecht v Go Ahead Eagles
Kickoff 2026-09-05 16:45
Tap for cells
This match kicked off and no result can ever be attached to it. It was priced from the odds feed, which keys on the bookmaker's event id, and nothing in our fixture list points at that id — so there is no score to settle it against, now or later. The price stands as published; the outcome is simply missing.
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.30 vs 3.77 30.3% · 26.5% -12.5% | 7.63 vs 5.92 13.1% · 16.9% +28.9% |
| Draw | 9.75 vs 6.24 10.3% · 16.0% +56.2% | 6.26 vs 9.79 16.0% · 10.2% -36.1% |
| Away win | 4.88 vs 5.40 20.5% · 18.5% -9.6% | 10.16 vs 8.46 9.8% · 11.8% +20.0% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
PD · Tier B
Settled
Rayo Vallecano v Real Racing Club de Santander
3-2 · Home win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.32 vs 4.00 30.1% · 25.0% -17.0% landed | 5.97 vs 4.57 16.7% · 21.9% +30.7% |
| Draw | 14.09 vs 6.97 7.1% · 14.3% +102.2% | 5.05 vs 7.97 19.8% · 12.6% -36.6% |
| Away win | 6.21 vs 7.15 16.1% · 14.0% -13.1% | 9.87 vs 8.17 10.1% · 12.2% +20.9% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
PL · Tier B
Settled
Hull City v Aston Villa
0-0 · Draw & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 8.43 vs 9.25 11.9% · 10.8% -8.9% | 9.38 vs 8.54 10.7% · 11.7% +9.9% |
| Draw | 15.48 vs 7.74 6.5% · 12.9% +100.0% | 4.89 vs 7.15 20.4% · 14.0% -31.6% landed |
| Away win | 3.37 vs 4.12 29.7% · 24.3% -18.2% | 4.79 vs 3.80 20.9% · 26.3% +25.9% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
SA · Tier A
No result
Inter Milan v Napoli
Kickoff 2026-09-05 16:00
Tap for cells
This match kicked off and no result can ever be attached to it. It was priced from the odds feed, which keys on the bookmaker's event id, and nothing in our fixture list points at that id — so there is no score to settle it against, now or later. The price stands as published; the outcome is simply missing.
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.99 vs 3.66 33.5% · 27.3% -18.4% | 4.31 vs 3.41 23.2% · 29.4% +26.5% |
| Draw | 17.52 vs 8.18 5.7% · 12.2% +114.1% | 5.09 vs 7.62 19.6% · 13.1% -33.2% |
| Away win | 11.06 vs 11.54 9.0% · 8.7% -4.1% | 11.19 vs 10.74 8.9% · 9.3% +4.2% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
FL1 · Tier B
Settled
RC Lens v Lorient
0-1 · Away win & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.40 vs 2.81 41.6% · 35.6% -14.4% | 4.75 vs 3.70 21.1% · 27.0% +28.3% |
| Draw | 16.27 vs 8.31 6.1% · 12.0% +95.7% | 6.66 vs 10.95 15.0% · 9.1% -39.2% |
| Away win | 10.97 vs 10.87 9.1% · 9.2% +1.0% | 14.14 vs 14.31 7.1% · 7.0% -1.2% landed |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
DED · Tier B
No result
NEC Nijmegen v Feyenoord
Kickoff 2026-09-05 14:30
Tap for cells
This match kicked off and no result can ever be attached to it. It was priced from the odds feed, which keys on the bookmaker's event id, and nothing in our fixture list points at that id — so there is no score to settle it against, now or later. The price stands as published; the outcome is simply missing.
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.94 vs 4.28 25.4% · 23.4% -7.9% | 11.16 vs 9.13 9.0% · 11.0% +22.2% |
| Draw | 8.97 vs 6.22 11.1% · 16.1% +44.2% | 8.03 vs 13.27 12.5% · 7.5% -39.5% |
| Away win | 3.17 vs 3.49 31.6% · 28.6% -9.3% | 9.52 vs 7.44 10.5% · 13.4% +27.9% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
PPL · Tier B
Settled
CF Estrela v Famalicão
2-2 · Draw & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 5.90 vs 7.16 17.0% · 14.0% -17.6% | 6.43 vs 5.39 15.5% · 18.5% +19.2% |
| Draw | 15.08 vs 7.52 6.6% · 13.3% +100.6% landed | 4.11 vs 5.67 24.3% · 17.6% -27.4% |
| Away win | 5.16 vs 6.37 19.4% · 15.7% -19.0% | 5.82 vs 4.80 17.2% · 20.8% +21.4% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
PD · Tier A
No result
Athletic Bilbao v Atlético Madrid
Kickoff 2026-09-05 14:15
Tap for cells
This match kicked off and no result can ever be attached to it. It was priced from the odds feed, which keys on the bookmaker's event id, and nothing in our fixture list points at that id — so there is no score to settle it against, now or later. The price stands as published; the outcome is simply missing.
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 5.30 vs 6.32 18.9% · 15.8% -16.1% | 7.92 vs 6.38 12.6% · 15.7% +24.1% |
| Draw | 14.36 vs 6.97 7.0% · 14.3% +105.9% | 4.64 vs 7.05 21.6% · 14.2% -34.2% |
| Away win | 4.09 vs 4.98 24.4% · 20.1% -17.8% | 6.43 vs 5.03 15.5% · 19.9% +27.9% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
ELC · Tier A
Settled
West Bromwich Albion v Watford
1-0 · Home win & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.15 vs 3.78 31.7% · 26.4% -16.8% | 4.90 vs 3.88 20.4% · 25.7% +26.1% landed |
| Draw | 14.11 vs 7.61 7.1% · 13.1% +85.5% | 5.30 vs 7.81 18.9% · 12.8% -32.1% |
| Away win | 8.47 vs 9.02 11.8% · 11.1% -6.2% | 9.93 vs 9.26 10.1% · 10.8% +7.2% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
ELC · Tier A
Settled
Millwall v Bolton Wanderers
4-0 · Home win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.43 vs 4.14 29.2% · 24.2% -17.1% landed | 5.22 vs 4.14 19.2% · 24.2% +26.1% |
| Draw | 13.10 vs 7.24 7.6% · 13.8% +81.0% | 5.00 vs 7.24 20.0% · 13.8% -30.9% |
| Away win | 7.57 vs 8.32 13.2% · 12.0% -8.9% | 9.22 vs 8.32 10.8% · 12.0% +10.9% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
ELC · Tier B
Settled
Sheffield United v Norwich City
1-3 · Away win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 4.58 vs 5.25 21.8% · 19.0% -12.7% | 6.98 vs 5.85 14.3% · 17.1% +19.4% |
| Draw | 11.90 vs 7.09 8.4% · 14.1% +67.8% | 5.45 vs 7.90 18.3% · 12.7% -31.0% |
| Away win | 4.45 vs 5.11 22.5% · 19.6% -13.0% landed | 6.84 vs 5.70 14.6% · 17.6% +20.0% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
ELC · Tier B
Settled
Portsmouth v Cardiff City
2-0 · Home win & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.93 vs 4.52 25.5% · 22.1% -13.1% | 6.65 vs 5.45 15.0% · 18.4% +22.1% landed |
| Draw | 11.47 vs 7.00 8.7% · 14.3% +63.9% | 5.74 vs 8.44 17.4% · 11.9% -32.0% |
| Away win | 4.88 vs 5.48 20.5% · 18.2% -11.0% | 7.77 vs 6.61 12.9% · 15.1% +17.5% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
ELC · Tier A
Settled
Burnley v Bristol City
1-2 · Away win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.46 vs 4.11 28.9% · 24.3% -15.8% | 5.28 vs 4.26 18.9% · 23.5% +24.1% |
| Draw | 13.57 vs 7.58 7.4% · 13.2% +78.9% | 5.40 vs 7.86 18.5% · 12.7% -31.4% |
| Away win | 6.84 vs 7.48 14.6% · 13.4% -8.6% landed | 8.59 vs 7.76 11.6% · 12.9% +10.8% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
ELC · Tier B
Settled
West Ham United v Derby County
3-0 · Home win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.23 vs 2.59 44.8% · 38.6% -13.8% landed | 4.27 vs 3.37 23.4% · 29.6% +26.4% |
| Draw | 19.50 vs 9.37 5.1% · 10.7% +108.2% | 7.28 vs 12.20 13.7% · 8.2% -40.4% |
| Away win | 15.07 vs 13.74 6.6% · 7.3% +9.7% | 16.05 vs 17.90 6.2% · 5.6% -10.3% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
ELC · Tier B
Settled
Queens Park Rangers v Middlesbrough
0-1 · Away win & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 5.39 vs 5.97 18.5% · 16.8% -9.7% | 8.44 vs 7.33 11.9% · 13.6% +15.1% |
| Draw | 11.53 vs 7.02 8.7% · 14.2% +64.3% | 5.82 vs 8.62 17.2% · 11.6% -32.5% |
| Away win | 3.59 vs 4.15 27.9% · 24.1% -13.6% | 6.31 vs 5.09 15.9% · 19.6% +23.8% landed |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
PL · Tier A
Settled
Brentford v Sunderland
1-1 · Draw & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.88 vs 3.45 34.8% · 29.0% -16.6% | 4.90 vs 3.82 20.4% · 26.2% +28.2% |
| Draw | 14.61 vs 7.59 6.8% · 13.2% +92.6% | 5.48 vs 8.41 18.2% · 11.9% -34.8% landed |
| Away win | 9.13 vs 9.63 11.0% · 10.4% -5.3% | 11.38 vs 10.68 8.8% · 9.4% +6.6% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
PL · Tier A
Settled
Brighton and Hove Albion v Leeds United
1-1 · Draw & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.42 vs 4.08 29.2% · 24.5% -16.1% | 5.64 vs 4.46 17.7% · 22.4% +26.5% |
| Draw | 12.94 vs 7.15 7.7% · 14.0% +80.9% | 5.25 vs 7.81 19.1% · 12.8% -32.8% landed |
| Away win | 6.55 vs 7.29 15.3% · 13.7% -10.1% | 9.08 vs 7.96 11.0% · 12.6% +14.0% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
PL · Tier A
Settled
Fulham v Crystal Palace
2-3 · Away win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.97 vs 4.80 25.2% · 20.8% -17.5% | 5.64 vs 4.52 17.7% · 22.1% +24.8% |
| Draw | 13.53 vs 7.22 7.4% · 13.9% +87.5% | 4.71 vs 6.78 21.2% · 14.7% -30.5% |
| Away win | 6.31 vs 7.26 15.8% · 13.8% -13.0% landed | 7.94 vs 6.82 12.6% · 14.7% +16.4% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
PL · Tier B
Settled
Nottingham Forest v Tottenham Hotspur
0-0 · Draw & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 4.07 vs 4.77 24.6% · 21.0% -14.6% | 6.77 vs 5.45 14.8% · 18.4% +24.4% |
| Draw | 11.65 vs 6.76 8.6% · 14.8% +72.3% | 5.22 vs 7.73 19.1% · 12.9% -32.4% landed |
| Away win | 4.96 vs 5.70 20.2% · 17.6% -12.9% | 7.84 vs 6.51 12.8% · 15.4% +20.4% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
BL1 · Tier B
Settled
Bayer Leverkusen v Union Berlin
4-0 · Home win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.06 vs 2.32 48.5% · 43.1% -11.3% landed | 5.85 vs 4.44 17.1% · 22.5% +32.0% |
| Draw | 13.73 vs 7.98 7.3% · 12.5% +72.1% | 8.47 vs 15.24 11.8% · 6.6% -44.4% |
| Away win | 10.17 vs 9.95 9.8% · 10.0% +2.2% | 18.26 vs 19.01 5.5% · 5.3% -3.9% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
BL1 · Tier B
Settled
Werder Bremen v RB Leipzig
3-1 · Home win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 6.25 vs 6.53 16.0% · 15.3% -4.2% landed | 14.30 vs 13.06 7.0% · 7.7% +9.6% |
| Draw | 10.38 vs 6.76 9.6% · 14.8% +53.5% | 7.97 vs 13.52 12.6% · 7.4% -41.1% |
| Away win | 2.44 vs 2.74 41.0% · 36.6% -10.9% | 7.25 vs 5.47 13.8% · 18.3% +32.5% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
BL1 · Tier B
Settled
SC Paderborn v SC Freiburg
0-1 · Away win & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 6.31 vs 6.90 15.9% · 14.5% -8.6% | 10.10 vs 8.88 9.9% · 11.3% +13.7% |
| Draw | 11.86 vs 6.92 8.4% · 14.5% +71.4% | 5.79 vs 8.90 17.3% · 11.2% -34.9% |
| Away win | 3.13 vs 3.66 32.0% · 27.3% -14.6% | 6.04 vs 4.71 16.6% · 21.2% +28.2% landed |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
BL1 · Tier B
No result
Borussia Monchengladbach v Elversberg
Kickoff 2026-09-05 13:30
Tap for cells
This match kicked off and no result can ever be attached to it. It was priced from the odds feed, which keys on the bookmaker's event id, and nothing in our fixture list points at that id — so there is no score to settle it against, now or later. The price stands as published; the outcome is simply missing.
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.87 vs 3.31 34.9% · 30.2% -13.4% | 6.28 vs 4.85 15.9% · 20.6% +29.4% |
| Draw | 11.43 vs 6.88 8.7% · 14.5% +66.0% | 6.37 vs 10.09 15.7% · 9.9% -36.8% |
| Away win | 6.33 vs 6.80 15.8% · 14.7% -6.9% | 11.17 vs 9.96 8.9% · 10.0% +12.2% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
BL1 · Tier B
Settled
TSG Hoffenheim v Borussia Dortmund
2-3 · Away win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.85 vs 4.26 26.0% · 23.5% -9.6% | 9.61 vs 7.75 10.4% · 12.9% +24.1% |
| Draw | 9.31 vs 6.23 10.7% · 16.1% +49.5% | 7.07 vs 11.33 14.1% · 8.8% -37.6% |
| Away win | 3.60 vs 4.00 27.8% · 25.0% -10.1% landed | 9.15 vs 7.28 10.9% · 13.7% +25.7% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
SA · Tier A
Settled
Fiorentina v Torino
1-2 · Away win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.38 vs 4.14 29.6% · 24.2% -18.3% | 5.09 vs 3.99 19.7% · 25.1% +27.5% |
| Draw | 13.99 vs 7.26 7.1% · 13.8% +92.7% | 4.78 vs 7.00 20.9% · 14.3% -31.7% |
| Away win | 8.08 vs 8.97 12.4% · 11.1% -9.9% landed | 9.67 vs 8.65 10.3% · 11.6% +11.8% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
ELC · Tier B
Settled
Lincoln City v Southampton
1-1 · Draw & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 6.97 vs 7.35 14.3% · 13.6% -5.2% | 10.32 vs 9.58 9.7% · 10.4% +7.7% |
| Draw | 12.56 vs 7.45 8.0% · 13.4% +68.7% | 6.34 vs 9.70 15.8% · 10.3% -34.7% landed |
| Away win | 2.92 vs 3.38 34.3% · 29.5% -13.8% | 5.57 vs 4.41 18.0% · 22.7% +26.3% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
ELC · Tier B
Settled
Stoke City v Charlton Athletic
4-0 · Home win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 4.05 vs 4.97 24.7% · 20.1% -18.6% landed | 5.09 vs 4.12 19.7% · 24.3% +23.4% |
| Draw | 14.51 vs 7.59 6.9% · 13.2% +91.1% | 4.51 vs 6.30 22.2% · 15.9% -28.3% |
| Away win | 7.29 vs 8.30 13.7% · 12.0% -12.2% | 7.78 vs 6.88 12.9% · 14.5% +13.0% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
ELC · Tier B
Settled
Preston North End v Blackburn Rovers
2-1 · Home win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 4.78 vs 5.77 20.9% · 17.3% -17.1% landed | 5.77 vs 4.78 17.3% · 20.9% +20.7% |
| Draw | 13.99 vs 7.50 7.1% · 13.3% +86.5% | 4.49 vs 6.22 22.3% · 16.1% -27.8% |
| Away win | 5.79 vs 6.82 17.3% · 14.7% -15.1% | 6.63 vs 5.65 15.1% · 17.7% +17.3% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
PL · Tier B
Settled
Newcastle United v Bournemouth
2-2 · Draw & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.19 vs 3.68 31.3% · 27.2% -13.3% | 6.79 vs 5.29 14.7% · 18.9% +28.3% |
| Draw | 10.79 vs 6.63 9.3% · 15.1% +62.9% landed | 6.13 vs 9.53 16.3% · 10.5% -35.7% |
| Away win | 5.44 vs 5.98 18.4% · 16.7% -9.0% | 10.02 vs 8.59 10.0% · 11.6% +16.6% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260905_061002
Friday 4 September
8 fixtures
PPL · Tier B
Settled
FC Porto v Moreirense FC
2-1 · Home win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 1.84 vs 2.07 54.2% · 48.3% -10.9% landed | 3.52 vs 2.91 28.4% · 34.3% +20.9% |
| Draw | 49.87 vs 14.33 2.0% · 7.0% +248.0% | 10.07 vs 20.15 9.9% · 5.0% -50.1% |
| Away win | 45.37 vs 31.59 2.2% · 3.2% +43.6% | 31.13 vs 44.43 3.2% · 2.3% -29.9% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260904_061002
FL1 · Tier B
Settled
Paris Saint Germain v AS Monaco
1-2 · Away win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 1.86 vs 2.08 53.8% · 48.2% -10.5% | 5.69 vs 4.30 17.6% · 23.2% +32.3% |
| Draw | 15.66 vs 8.66 6.4% · 11.5% +80.8% | 9.31 vs 17.94 10.7% · 5.6% -48.1% |
| Away win | 13.84 vs 12.92 7.2% · 7.7% +7.1% landed | 23.54 vs 26.77 4.2% · 3.7% -12.1% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260904_061002
PD · Tier B
Settled
Real Betis v Real Madrid
1-0 · Home win & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 10.05 vs 10.32 10.0% · 9.7% -2.7% | 22.67 vs 21.39 4.4% · 4.7% +6.0% landed |
| Draw | 14.92 vs 7.84 6.7% · 12.8% +90.3% | 8.19 vs 16.24 12.2% · 6.2% -49.6% |
| Away win | 1.97 vs 2.22 50.8% · 45.0% -11.4% | 6.28 vs 4.60 15.9% · 21.7% +36.3% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260904_061002
PL · Tier B
Settled
Ipswich Town v Liverpool
0-2 · Away win & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 9.48 vs 9.33 10.5% · 10.7% +1.6% | 20.52 vs 21.26 4.9% · 4.7% -3.5% |
| Draw | 12.23 vs 7.61 8.2% · 13.1% +60.6% | 9.33 vs 17.36 10.7% · 5.8% -46.2% |
| Away win | 1.97 vs 2.19 50.8% · 45.7% -10.1% | 6.71 vs 4.99 14.9% · 20.0% +34.4% landed |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260904_061002
SA · Tier A
No result
Genoa v Como
Kickoff 2026-09-04 18:45
Tap for cells
This match kicked off and no result can ever be attached to it. It was priced from the odds feed, which keys on the bookmaker's event id, and nothing in our fixture list points at that id — so there is no score to settle it against, now or later. The price stands as published; the outcome is simply missing.
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 11.11 vs 11.93 9.0% · 8.4% -6.8% | 11.41 vs 10.66 8.8% · 9.4% +7.0% |
| Draw | 15.93 vs 7.56 6.3% · 13.2% +110.8% | 4.59 vs 6.75 21.8% · 14.8% -31.9% |
| Away win | 3.13 vs 3.91 31.9% · 25.6% -19.9% | 4.49 vs 3.49 22.3% · 28.6% +28.4% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's.
Source artefact: run 20260904_061002
BL1 · Tier B
Settled
VfB Stuttgart v 1. FC Köln
4-1 · Home win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.00 vs 2.22 50.1% · 45.0% -10.2% landed | 6.84 vs 5.07 14.6% · 19.7% +34.9% |
| Draw | 11.75 vs 7.40 8.5% · 13.5% +58.9% | 9.14 vs 16.86 10.9% · 5.9% -45.8% |
| Away win | 9.18 vs 9.10 10.9% · 11.0% +0.9% | 20.31 vs 20.74 4.9% · 4.8% -2.1% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260904_061002
DED · Tier B
Settled
Sparta Rotterdam v FC Zwolle
2-2 · Draw & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.96 vs 3.36 33.8% · 29.8% -12.0% | 7.63 vs 5.83 13.1% · 17.2% +30.9% |
| Draw | 9.60 vs 6.26 10.4% · 16.0% +53.4% landed | 6.77 vs 10.86 14.8% · 9.2% -37.7% |
| Away win | 5.21 vs 5.65 19.2% · 17.7% -7.9% | 11.53 vs 9.81 8.7% · 10.2% +17.5% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260904_061002
FL1 · Tier B
No result
Lyon v Auxerre
Kickoff 2026-09-04 17:00
Tap for cells
This match kicked off and no result can ever be attached to it. It was priced from the odds feed, which keys on the bookmaker's event id, and nothing in our fixture list points at that id — so there is no score to settle it against, now or later. The price stands as published; the outcome is simply missing.
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.31 vs 2.71 43.2% · 36.9% -14.7% | 4.48 vs 3.49 22.3% · 28.7% +28.4% |
| Draw | 17.84 vs 8.59 5.6% · 11.6% +107.7% | 6.63 vs 11.06 15.1% · 9.0% -40.0% |
| Away win | 13.42 vs 12.91 7.4% · 7.7% +4.0% | 15.83 vs 16.62 6.3% · 6.0% -4.7% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's.
Source artefact: run 20260904_061002
Thursday 3 September
2 fixtures
PD · Tier A
No result
Real Sociedad v Celta Vigo
Kickoff 2026-09-03 19:00
Tap for cells
This match kicked off and no result can ever be attached to it. It was priced from the odds feed, which keys on the bookmaker's event id, and nothing in our fixture list points at that id — so there is no score to settle it against, now or later. The price stands as published; the outcome is simply missing.
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.13 vs 3.80 31.9% · 26.3% -17.6% | 5.13 vs 3.98 19.5% · 25.1% +28.9% |
| Draw | 16.54 vs 7.58 6.0% · 13.2% +118.1% | 5.07 vs 7.94 19.7% · 12.6% -36.2% |
| Away win | 7.59 vs 8.57 13.2% · 11.7% -11.5% | 10.39 vs 8.98 9.6% · 11.1% +15.7% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's.
Source artefact: run 20260903_061002
FL1 · Tier A
Settled
Toulouse v Lille
0-1 · Away win & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 7.41 vs 8.27 13.5% · 12.1% -10.4% | 9.46 vs 8.35 10.6% · 12.0% +13.3% |
| Draw | 13.26 vs 7.10 7.5% · 14.1% +86.9% | 4.88 vs 7.17 20.5% · 13.9% -32.0% |
| Away win | 3.42 vs 4.15 29.2% · 24.1% -17.6% | 5.35 vs 4.20 18.7% · 23.8% +27.6% landed |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260903_061002
Wednesday 2 September
4 fixtures
ELC · Tier B
Settled
Burnley v Middlesbrough
1-1 · Draw & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 4.64 vs 5.22 21.6% · 19.1% -11.2% | 7.81 vs 6.57 12.8% · 15.2% +18.9% |
| Draw | 10.96 vs 6.81 9.1% · 14.7% +61.0% | 5.80 vs 8.56 17.2% · 11.7% -32.3% landed |
| Away win | 4.00 vs 4.57 25.0% · 21.9% -12.6% | 7.02 vs 5.75 14.2% · 17.4% +22.1% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260902_061002
ELC · Tier A
Settled
Millwall v Wrexham AFC
0-3 · Away win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 4.08 vs 4.87 24.5% · 20.5% -16.3% | 5.67 vs 4.62 17.6% · 21.6% +22.6% |
| Draw | 13.16 vs 7.34 7.6% · 13.6% +79.2% | 4.91 vs 6.97 20.4% · 14.3% -29.6% |
| Away win | 6.04 vs 6.87 16.6% · 14.5% -12.2% landed | 7.52 vs 6.53 13.3% · 15.3% +15.2% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260902_061002
ELC · Tier B
Settled
Queens Park Rangers v Cardiff City
2-1 · Home win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.02 vs 3.46 33.1% · 28.9% -12.6% landed | 6.10 vs 4.86 16.4% · 20.6% +25.4% |
| Draw | 11.81 vs 7.31 8.5% · 13.7% +61.6% | 6.69 vs 10.28 14.9% · 9.7% -34.9% |
| Away win | 5.92 vs 6.31 16.9% · 15.8% -6.2% | 9.79 vs 8.87 10.2% · 11.3% +10.3% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260902_061002
ELC · Tier A
Settled
West Bromwich Albion v Charlton Athletic
1-1 · Draw & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.08 vs 3.71 32.5% · 26.9% -17.2% | 4.48 vs 3.58 22.3% · 27.9% +25.0% |
| Draw | 16.17 vs 8.21 6.2% · 12.2% +96.9% | 5.37 vs 7.92 18.6% · 12.6% -32.2% landed |
| Away win | 9.62 vs 10.01 10.4% · 10.0% -4.0% | 10.06 vs 9.66 9.9% · 10.4% +4.2% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260902_061002
Tuesday 1 September
8 fixtures
ELC · Tier A
Settled
Stoke City v Norwich City
1-0 · Home win & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 5.92 vs 6.56 16.9% · 15.2% -9.8% | 8.38 vs 7.35 11.9% · 13.6% +13.9% landed |
| Draw | 12.22 vs 7.17 8.2% · 13.9% +70.3% | 5.49 vs 8.04 18.2% · 12.4% -31.6% |
| Away win | 3.60 vs 4.23 27.8% · 23.7% -14.8% | 5.87 vs 4.73 17.0% · 21.1% +24.1% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260901_061002
ELC · Tier A
Settled
Birmingham City v Southampton
1-1 · Draw & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 4.25 vs 4.93 23.5% · 20.3% -13.9% | 6.66 vs 5.47 15.0% · 18.3% +21.8% |
| Draw | 11.56 vs 6.91 8.6% · 14.5% +67.3% | 5.30 vs 7.66 18.9% · 13.1% -30.9% landed |
| Away win | 4.90 vs 5.61 20.4% · 17.8% -12.5% | 7.39 vs 6.22 13.5% · 16.1% +18.9% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260901_061002
ELC · Tier B
Settled
West Ham United v Wolverhampton Wanderers
4-2 · Home win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.30 vs 3.84 30.3% · 26.0% -14.1% landed | 6.09 vs 4.83 16.4% · 20.7% +25.9% |
| Draw | 11.38 vs 6.92 8.8% · 14.4% +64.5% | 5.83 vs 8.70 17.2% · 11.5% -33.0% |
| Away win | 6.01 vs 6.57 16.6% · 15.2% -8.4% | 9.34 vs 8.26 10.7% · 12.1% +13.1% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260901_061002
ELC · Tier A
Settled
Portsmouth v Derby County
0-2 · Away win & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.69 vs 4.47 27.1% · 22.4% -17.5% | 4.93 vs 3.99 20.3% · 25.0% +23.4% |
| Draw | 14.89 vs 7.85 6.7% · 12.7% +89.8% | 4.92 vs 7.00 20.3% · 14.3% -29.7% |
| Away win | 7.49 vs 8.29 13.4% · 12.1% -9.7% | 8.18 vs 7.40 12.2% · 13.5% +10.5% landed |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260901_061002
ELC · Tier B
Settled
Sheffield United v Bolton Wanderers
3-2 · Home win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 2.79 vs 3.32 35.8% · 30.1% -16.0% landed | 4.70 vs 3.70 21.3% · 27.0% +26.9% |
| Draw | 14.92 vs 7.91 6.7% · 12.6% +88.6% | 5.79 vs 8.82 17.3% · 11.3% -34.4% |
| Away win | 9.81 vs 10.03 10.2% · 10.0% -2.2% | 11.46 vs 11.17 8.7% · 8.9% +2.5% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260901_061002
ELC · Tier A
Settled
Swansea City v Watford
2-0 · Home win & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 3.20 vs 3.82 31.3% · 26.1% -16.4% | 4.85 vs 3.88 20.6% · 25.7% +24.9% landed |
| Draw | 14.67 vs 7.88 6.8% · 12.7% +86.3% | 5.44 vs 8.00 18.4% · 12.5% -32.0% |
| Away win | 8.13 vs 8.66 12.3% · 11.5% -6.1% | 9.42 vs 8.80 10.6% · 11.4% +7.1% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260901_061002
ELC · Tier A
Settled
Lincoln City v Blackburn Rovers
0-0 · Draw & Under 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 4.07 vs 4.83 24.6% · 20.7% -15.7% | 5.83 vs 4.76 17.2% · 21.0% +22.5% |
| Draw | 12.84 vs 7.28 7.8% · 13.7% +76.4% | 5.02 vs 7.17 19.9% · 14.0% -29.9% landed |
| Away win | 5.79 vs 6.59 17.3% · 15.2% -12.1% | 7.51 vs 6.49 13.3% · 15.4% +15.7% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260901_061002
ELC · Tier A
Settled
Preston North End v Bristol City
1-3 · Away win & Over 2.5
Tap for cells
| Result | Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
|---|---|---|
| Home win | 5.02 vs 5.78 19.9% · 17.3% -13.3% | 7.04 vs 5.94 14.2% · 16.8% +18.6% |
| Draw | 12.22 vs 7.10 8.2% · 14.1% +72.1% | 5.09 vs 7.28 19.6% · 13.7% -30.1% |
| Away win | 4.44 vs 5.19 22.5% · 19.3% -14.5% landed | 6.45 vs 5.33 15.5% · 18.8% +21.0% |
Each cell reads fair price vs builder price, then the two implied probabilities, then the gap between them. The fair price is the joint engine's; the builder price is what multiplying the two markets independently would give. A positive gap means our price is longer than the builder's. The highlighted cell is the one that actually occurred.
Source artefact: run 20260901_061002
August 2026 13 priced · summarised
Friday 21 August
3 fixturesMonday 17 August
2 fixturesSunday 16 August
8 fixturesWhat is deliberately not here
This page is built from immutable serving artefacts, and it will not backfill itself. Of 55 serving runs on disk, 11 are not rendered here. A price that was made before kickoff but never published at the time is not published now with today's date. It would look like a record and prove nothing, which is the exact failure the publication record exists to rule out.
13 settled fixture(s) older than
2 months show a summary card rather than all six cells.
Nothing is removed — the summary keeps the cell that landed and both of its prices,
because the claim this page makes is the comparison, not the result. Every one of the six
cells stays in that fixture's served.csv, linked from its card. The full card
is kept for the current and previous month only, so a page carrying a whole season does not
ship a whole season's markup to every reader.